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Trading Water

Monday, June 22nd, 2009, by Richard

Someone needs to explain this to me.
GM-Government Motors-has fallen from being one of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average…to the purgatory of the pink sheets.
In one fell swoop.
That’s what they call the over-the-counter market for stocks that no longer qualify for listing on the Big Board or Nasdaq exchanges.
Which makes perfect sense, […]

The Fork in the Road, Part III

Wednesday, June 10th, 2009, by Richard

On reflection, we may be able to muddle our way through…and thread the needle between deflation and inflation.
It won’t be easy.  Free money is addictive and corrupting.
Once everyone understands that wealth makes you a target…and need makes you a favored constituency, the structure for incentives is skewed and distorted.
If I had to lay down the […]

The Fork in the Road, Part II

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009, by Richard

Now that you have been scared straight on the perils of deflation…
We must explore the other gruesome possibility…runaway inflation.
Life is abundant with choices and decisions.  In this case, you once again have a choice…between freezing to death and being roasted on a spit.
Perhaps you’ve wondered, as I have, where all the trillions in bailout and […]

The Fork in the Road, Part I

Monday, June 8th, 2009, by Richard

Yogi Berra said it best…”When you come to the fork in the road…Take it!”
There are two distinct and likely outcomes for the policy excesses we have incurred in our haste to cushion the effects from the burst housing and credit bubbles.
One is a pernicious and debilitating bout of deflation…
…which we will explore today.  In part […]

Falling into the VAT, Part II

Wednesday, May 27th, 2009, by Richard

The VAT (Value Added Tax), when it comes, will be an easy sell to a diminished and demoralized debtor nation desperate for solvency.
Like the income tax, or social security and medicare payroll taxes, it will first emerge as a mere sliver of its potential…hardly a blip on our consciousness.
As an exercise in nostalgia and masochism, […]

The Lost Generation

Thursday, May 21st, 2009, by Richard

This was the descriptive phrase that Gertrude Stein, and later Ernest Hemingway and F. Scott Fitzgerald used to describe the war weary and disillusioned post World War I Generation.
It could also describe the generation that came of age during the Great Depression…
…with the lessons of the Stock Market Crash and widespread unemployment that caused them […]

When Bubbles Deflate

Thursday, March 26th, 2009, by Richard

Finally…I found one upside to the downslide.
Even when you totally mess up..you can always serve as a bad example to others.
With both our equity and real estate markets in peril, let’s see how that worked the last time around.
Everyone wants to compare the current crisis with the 1930’s depression, but we have a much more […]

Econ 101

Monday, March 23rd, 2009, by Richard

Not to sound like such a nagging scold….
But there is such a whopping disconnect between theory and reality that somebody has to call a foul on the Democratic majority in congress.
It starts with a generation gap.
It seems that the newer generation, including of course the President, tend to be more pragmatic and less dogmatic in […]