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Archive for January, 2009

Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009, by Richard

Look for this headline caption to pop up on Craigslist any day now:
For sale: Vacuum cleaner. Never used, Does not work
I am indebted to James Stewart, for his SmartMoney column published July 24, 2008.
Stewart is worth reading at any time, a habit all serious investors should cultivate. He is one of the most disciplined […]

The Shrinking Street

Tuesday, January 20th, 2009, by Richard

Every industry eventually gets cut down to size. It’s inevitable.
Whether you call it downsizing or rightsizing, there is a strain of undiluted and savage Darwinism that helps winnow out the weak and infirm so that the health of the pack is strengthened.
Which is why you can no longer buy a Studebaker or book […]

The Five Stages of Grief - in Real Estate

Monday, January 19th, 2009, by Richard

You may wonder why residential real estate prices have not reached bottom yet.
For the time being, set aside all the analytical tools at your disposal, and curl up with a classic book describing human behavior….”On Death and Dying” (1969) by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross.
I know. Not much merriment in store…but worth the effort nonetheless.
Realize that […]

Occam’s Razor

Friday, January 16th, 2009, by Richard

Entia non sunt multipilicanda praeter necessitatem
Which, literally translates to—”entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity”.
Through the centuries, the dictum from the 14th century English logician is more broadly interpreted, as:
“All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best”.
Which, of course brings us to the present day necessity to dismember the constituent companies under […]

What’s In a Number?

Thursday, January 15th, 2009, by Richard

Let’s revisit the urgent request three months ago for the $700-billion TARP (Troubled Asset Repurchase Program).
You will recall that there was a nearly unanimous clamor from all the legacy media to pass this urgent legislation. After the House Republicans killed the bill on the first vote, they were bludgeoned into submission later that same […]

Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2009

Wednesday, January 14th, 2009, by Richard

The Blue Jeans Millionaire blog will celebrate its first anniversary this month.
I thought you might enjoy a different take from someone who has been prognosticating markets and trends for a much longer time, for well over 20 consecutive years to date.
In the investment community, Byron Wien is a legend for his fearless, and […]

The Stealth Bull Market of ‘09

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009, by Richard

I’ll bet that caught your attention.
It may just be a bull rally in a long-run secular bear market, but let’s enjoy it while we can.
For now, November 20 marks the absolute low of the savage October 2007-November 2008 bear market.
Both domestic and foreign indexes were down nearly by half at that point.
The November 21 rally […]

Indymac: The Sequel

Monday, January 12th, 2009, by Richard

The bottom-feeders are back. Big time.
I’m not ready to call a market bottom yet, but a quartet of billionaires have placed a significant bet on a turnaround.
As reported in the Wall Street Journal article (1/3/2009, page A1), “Soros, Dell Join Flowers in Purchase of IndyMac,” the Feds have evidently made an offer that cannot […]