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Archive for November, 2008

The Death of the Diversified Portfolio

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008, by Richard

Looks like we’ll have to rewrite most of the investment textbooks after this year.
The cherished concept of portfolio diversification has taken a big hit and may never fully recover.
Back in the day…
The conventional wisdom was that non-correlating assets would not move in tandem. If foreign stocks tanked, domestic stocks would take up the slack. […]

The Europeanization of America

Monday, November 17th, 2008, by Richard

Now we must face an idea whose time has come.
Only I wish it hadn’t.
Even if the other guy had won the Presidential election, it would not have made much difference at this point.
If you had to choose the pivotal event that marked the end of the free market economy in this country, it would be […]

Newest Strain of Asian Flu

Friday, November 14th, 2008, by Richard

Too bad there is no inoculation for this nasty bug emerging in Asia.
I had never heard of it, until November 6, when I read Laura Santini’s article in the Wall Street Journal, “Asian Investors ‘Accumulate’ Big Losses on Risky Contracts” (page C1).
In the grand scheme of things, it’s not the worst idea that ever came […]

Why Bonds Make Me Nervous

Thursday, November 13th, 2008, by Richard

How will we know when we’ve finally reached bottom?
Maybe we’ll have a reprise of Business Week’s legendary cover article of August 13, 1979, entitled “The Death of Equities”….written when the Dow was at 875.
The public mistakenly believes that bonds must somehow be virtuous as recompense for equities that are now discredited. This is […]

Redefining Risk

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008, by Richard

Selling risky assets is itself a risky strategy….long term.
There is a paradox to falling security prices. We loved these stocks a year ago, when they reached their all time highs.
And we are selling them indiscriminately now that they have fallen 40-50%.
Because they are perceived to be risky.
Hold on a second….how can an asset […]

Dying Detroit

Tuesday, November 11th, 2008, by Richard

It’s time we eulogized our decrepit and decaying domestic auto industry….if only I could think of something nice to say.
There are three guilty parties at this funeral:

Management
Labor
Government

The government actions taking place during the financial crisis are in fact serving to promote and exacerbate the market’s sickening slide. They simply don’t have a clue.
Bailing […]

One Firewall Remains

Monday, November 10th, 2008, by Richard

Now that the election is finally over, let’s see what, if anything, still remains to ensure gridlock.
It would be nice to think there might be a brief honeymoon….to allow the new administration to settle in, but let’s not get totally carried away.
It would not be to the President’s advantage to have an unchecked legislative […]

Generational Warfare

Friday, November 7th, 2008, by Richard

Not warfare, exactly. More like an implacable imbalance.
Demography is destiny…and we have three distinct age cohorts who will soon be at odds as they attempt to divvy up the spoils.
1. The Baby Boomers
Front and center, thirsting for their entitlement transfers, are the baby boomers. The 77 million born from 1946-64. Their sheer […]